Friday, February 12, 2016
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Again, thanks for reading, I'm going to leave the site up, there are plenty of predictions in the earlier posts, and I wouldn't want the cover anything up.
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
More Hot Primaries Brewing
New Thoughts About the 8th
Rogers is ex-FBI, sits on the intelligence committee, has ties to DeLay etc, while this Marcinkowski fellow is ex-CIA (an operative, not an analyst), knows Valerie Plame and has no paper trail when it comes to issues and voting. While he hasn't come out on issues, I'm going to assume he must be somewhat moderate, which should play well in a district that has more conservative voters than liberals.
Rogers is in a tough spot, he certainly hasn't dodged any bullets this year. He will have to move to the right (if he gets involved at all) in the GOP primary against Flynn and back to the center to deal with Marcinkowski.
I also find it quite amusing that the election is going to be about national security, not the economy, in a state like Michigan and in a district like the 8th. I suppose it goes to show. This should be interesting.
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
From the FEC:
MARCINKOWSKI, JAMES MR.
OXFORD, MI 48371
CITY OF ROYAL OAK/DISTRICT ATTORN
| BUSH, GEORGE W|
VIA BUSH FOR PRESIDENT INC.
Or his page here, which is too long to reprint. Copy his last name into the field under Contributor analysis. The problem might not be that he is a DINO, but not a dem at all.
Monday, November 14, 2005
More Exciting Primaries
I wonder what Michael Murphy is doing these days?
Sunday, November 13, 2005
A Really Bad Idea
Instead, the state proposes this, what amounts to an entire high school program. Four years locked in. It's stupid and I don't like it. Here's my favorite quote from the article:
"It's not fair for one child in one district to have an advantage over another child in another district as they get ready to go to college."
How about the fact that some students are worth $7,000 to the state and go to school in run down hell holes while other learn in palaces and the state deems them worth over $12,000. That doesn't seem "fair" to me.
It would be nice if every high school could be a prep school for college and every student could attend college, but they really just can't (except in Kalamazoo). I hope the state legislature does the right thing for once and kicks this proposal back to where it belongs.
Saturday, November 12, 2005
Cox, Fieger Share Pipe
Here's what I don't want to see, anything. This mess with Fieger and Cox isn't really what I expected when Fieger announced his candidacy a couple weeks ago. I expected to get this kind of tripe from Fieger, I didn't expect Mike Cox to show his true colors. Today Mike Cox released a tape of the "blackmail call" that Fieger supposedly ordered through some Cox/Feiger crony out for a book deal named Lee O'Brian. This all smells phony to me and I don't like it.
I guess we've managed to avoid the whole hollywood crap here in Michigan for awhile but the way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me if they released "Cox in too Deep" on DVD next week. It makes me sick. If this is what you want to do with your life, call Entertainment Weekly, not the Free Press.
Friday, November 11, 2005
Who's stalling now?
The Governor is promising to veto portions of the 12-bill package that the House and Senate passed on Thursday and it is worth pondering what political implications this will have.
Remember, one of the main talking points for Granholm and her supporters (other than "Bush did it") has been that the Republicans have been stalling on acting on her jobs package. As she has repeatedly said "Jobs can't wait".
Now with Granholm's veto imminent, we get this
from Senate Majority Leader Ken Sikkema: "Let's do something good for Michigan right now."
With Granholm holding out for what she thinks is a better deal, will she lose the ability to accuse the Republicans of stalling and make herself susceptible to the same charge?
Thursday, November 10, 2005
No More AdSense
In lieu of that, I've decided to sell ad space to people (or campaigns) that feel like paying the $5 a month it would cost to get a server. About 50 people come to the site each day, I would guess that most of them have at least a passing interest in politics. If you're interested, write me, we'll work something out. (email@example.com)
How they got it so wrong
Turns out both Channel 4/Detroit News and Channel 7/Free Press exit polled by calling people. Big mistake in Detroit, where a plethera of residents don't use traditional land lines.
In both stories, the Freep and the News deflect the fact that THEY got it wrong, saying it was the pollsters. If you hired someone to do something, and they got it wrong, it still means you got it wrong.
According to the Free Press, GOP bait n' switch tactics ove the tobacco settlement bill won't be working against Granholm unless they are willing to give up their deer hunting recess. This is nice to see, I was wondering when Granholm was gonna stop messing around with wiffle balls. This is hardball, and things are going to get messy.
As an aside, this is the second story I read in about 10 minutes that used the term "hastily called news conference," (the other is here) . Is something going on?
Thanks to Matt at Michigan Liberal for the tip
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
I don't think it's really that tough, he got more people to vote for him and not just a few more people. People are talking about how this will benefit one group or another, but in reality, Detroit needs help, maybe Kilpatrick can do it, maybe he can't. I suppose we're going to have to find out along with the rest of Detroit.
Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick
Good luck Kwame, I don' t think Detroit will give you a third chance, so don't mess this one up.
I think those cover mostly everything, if I'm missing stuff, send me a link.
18-year-old HS student wins mayoral seat
I don't know his political leanings, but I want to track this Sessions kid.
Kwame wins, Currie loses
The best news of the morning is Jackie Currie was defeated 113,232 to 99,607.
Races Coming In
with 61% of precincts counted.
The lead is about 2,600 votes.
In Lansing, Bernero has established a clear lead with 62% of the ballots counted, he leads Benavides by about 23 points. Chris Swope has a slightly smaller lead over sitting Lansing Clerk Debbie Miner.
Waiting for Detroit and Lansing
In Lansing, with 44% of ballots counted, Bernero leads Benavides with over 62% of the vote. He has declared victory but Benavides called him arrogant, saying the best is to come. He's a funny guy.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Results start to trickle in
In East Lansing, Kevin Beard and Victor Loomis, an incumbent won seats on the City Council, beating out William Sharp and John Fournier.
In Ferndale, a ballot question legalizing medical marijuana has passed.
In Lansing, Virg Bernero is leading sitting Mayor Tony Benavides 60%-40% while Chris Swope is leading incumbent Clerk Debbie Miner by a slightly smaller margin. 23% of precincts are reporting.
And finally, in Detroit very early results put Hendrix up about 35 points over Kilpatrick, but like I said, these are very early.
Dead Heat in Detroit
Things have been swirling around Detroit Clerk Jackie Currie for some time now, but things are really starting to heat up today. Matt has posted a lot about this over at Michigan Liberal but tonight, a judge has issued an order that would keep ballots from being sent to the clerk's office. Here are some stories from the Free Press and the Detroit News.
The NAACP also filed suit against the MiGOP over poll monitors that the party sent to the election today. Here's a story.
Hendrix winning after exit polls
I wouldn't trust them though. Jackie Currie and those funny absentee ballots could change things . . .
Thanks to MINewsRoundup for the tip
11.4 % --DeRossett
17.7 % --Walberg
The conservative vote was split, mainly between the Club for Growth candidate and son of fmr. Rep Nick Smith, Brad Smith and Tim Walberg a former state legisltor. The year the conservatives aren't messing around, putting their backing solidly behind Walberg very early on. Schwarz has a lot of cash on hand, about 330k while Walberg hasn't started raising money yet. This race could get hot, but Schwarz really isn't as moderate as many had feared and he hasn't made too many new enemies on the right. I suspect that the sitting congressman will take this race easily, but you never know. I'll be keeping an eye on this race.
MCRI Takes Another Blow
Anyway, this brings up a lot of interesting issues. Bouchard coming out against this proposal means that only Zandstra is for it among the statewide republican candidates. This will clearly help Zandstra in the primary amongst the kind of people that vote in republican primaries. If, however, he doesn't win, then there will be no supporters of MCRI amongst the GOP challengers for statewide office. I don't think that it would help out the ticket very much at all. The goopers have to be careful not to alienate their base.
It's Election Day
Monday, November 07, 2005
Could this be the start of something new? A society where people vote for their interests instead of their beliefs? Times are getting rough, it wouldn't be that big of a shocker. Here's a snip from a questionaire:
Rosalynn Bliss, 2nd Ward: Bliss is in support of this—she called it a “family living wage.” She support incentives for diversity as well and believes that the money would stay in the community. She described the payment of higher wages as a way of valuing families and said that you cannot balance the City budget on the backs of the working class.
Shaula Johnston, 2nd Ward: No, she will not promote a living wage at this time. Her goal is to save money and not spend it.This is a race to watch.
The Day Before
New Zogby Poll
In the Senate, Stabenow leads Butler, Bouchard and Zandstra, 53/38, 54/35 and 54/35, respectively. Zogby didn't do any polling on the primary, but right now, it doesn't look to make much of a difference. Butler does seem to have gained a bit of headway, however, not all of his money was spend for naught.
In the gov race, some surprising news for Granholm. It shows her leading DeVos 54/36, what ammounts to a 10 point gain over a recent Mitchell Research poll put out a few weeks ago. Don't put too much stock in it, Granholm has a tough race ahead of her.
Friday, November 04, 2005
I also decided to put up AdSense, if I make some money, I'd really like to get me a server, blogger is starting to cramp my style.
Thursday, November 03, 2005
Out of the Woodwork
Flynn's campaign will seem to focus on abortion and gay marriage and while he certainly won't win, Rogers will have to spend a bit of money, and probably say some really stupid things about how he isn't really a moderate. All in all, this is no good for Rogers, it makes him more vulnerable. I wouldn't expect the Club for Growth to get involved.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Detroit needs a new clerk
I hope she is all over the trail getting votes, but I haven’t seen much from her. She has bullets on her web site saying she wants to restore dignity in the absentee ballot process. I hope she gets tougher in the last week of the election. She needs to hammer home, the current clerk is shady as hell, and she is squeaky clean.
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
Here's a Bill Idea
I like it. In a couple years, we'll be mining our landfills for valuable natural resources that we "forgot" to recycle. Why not take all of Canada's trash if it's so great then? Well first off it's stinky, and nobody likes that. But we have a lot of space and we could make some requirements about stinkiness on the road. Second, their trucks really mess up the roads. More than anything else, they really ruin roads. So we can tax them (see "stinky truck bridge fee" above) accordingly.
But isn't trash bad for the environment? Not really. Trash in the environment can be bad, but trash in a landfill is a good thing. That's where it's supposed to be. Michigan has a lot of very well managed land fills, it's big business in this state and for good reason. There are a lot of really nice places in Michigan and there are a lot of really crappy ones (I know, I grew up in one). Putting a landfill in a crappy place can even make it better (see Mt. Trashmore).
So instead of debating about fake environmental issues like "Stopping Canadian Trash," we could be talking about stopping mercury pollution so we can eat Great Lakes fish again, or transitioning to wind power (Lake Michigan is a great place to do it), or forcing the Big 2.5 to do something about fuel economy. We could be talking about expanding public use of lands for hunting and fishing, or enlarging the size and increasing the quality of the state park system, or if we were really crazy, like Vern Ehlers crazy, we could talk about investing in sustainable systems that will bring jobs to the state.
Or, we could ban what could and should be a decent way for the state to make a couple bucks.
Here are a couple things to note. DeVos want's Butler to win the primary. He is the only candidate that could give DeVos any boost by helping bring the conservatice black vote to the repubs. That's why we see the collusion. As for the ballot proposal, this really complicates things. While I really doubt that these two will every bring up the subject again, I think the gooper base might not like this news. This is something that all those white suburban parents whose kids are applying to school probably care about. I presume that Bouchard will come out for MCRI, looking to find some way to capture the gooper base. This race has goten very interesting, more and more by the day. I'm sure there'll be fireworks before the end.
Monday, October 31, 2005
Just thought I'd pass that along; Dave Camp has rock bottom rates.
Chaos in Lansing
Republicans need to get with the times. Taxes are really not the chief burden on business anymore. Insurance is the big killer. To their credit, the gop did go after liability insurance by trying to make it illegal for people to sue for damages, but I'm still waiting for a proposal to make it illegal for people to get sick or injured. Heavy industry will continue to leave this state, and the state will continue to transition to a more high-tech economy, but there is a very significant time lag in the process. The only way to slow the exodus of industry today is to cover the health care of their workers.
Diversification doesn't happen overnight and college diplomas don't either, but industry does pack up factories faster than we can say "Wait."
Also, I really want to increase the Michigan Blogs catagory on the left, so use the comments to tell me about your favorite Michigan Blog.
The GOTV Contest
First is the Senate candidacy of Keith Butler, an Oakland county reverend, millionaire, conservative black man. It's not the standard combination and not one that would beat Stabenow. What it might do, is make the GOP ticket a bit more appealing to black people, both in Detroit and elsewhere (and yes, there are black people in Michigan that don't live in Detroit). It might provide push the govs race over the top, or maybe seal a win for a couple congressional seats, lr state leg seats. But now we hear news that white Oakland county sheriff Mike Bouchard is back in the race after a breif period of health problems. Throw in Jerry Zandstra into the mix, probably the choice of West Michigan republicans, and who knows which candidate will come out on top.
Bottom line: I don't think any of them can beat Stabenow, Butler would take some of the wind out of the Dems sails but Zandstra or Bouchard might be able to give a push to the GOP ticket as a whole. Who knows.
But there's another issue coming down the pipes; it's the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative. It doesn't really have anything to do with civil rights, but it would make illegal the consideration of race as a factor in both university admissions and public (and I suppose private) contracting. This could get a lot of attention from minority communities, or it might not. I think universities are going to find ways to let in poor black and hispanic kids whether they have high test scores or not, so I can't imagine what this bill hopes to accomplish except rile up a big group of people. This is another question make though. The proposal isn't even guaranteed to be on the ballot yet (it seems like it will though), but it seems like a lot of national money will be going into the race.
My take? I think this is a much bigger factor due to the contracting clause. Cities have all kinds of minority business agreements to promote small minority businesses. This proposal would get rid of all those programs, putting a lot of businesses out of business and a lot of people out of work. I think that is going to line up a lot of people against this and really work to get them to the polls. It was a bad idea for the MiGOP to let this get on the ballot. It's like gay marriage for the Dems, its just not the issue that brings out your side, but it sure does bring out theirs.
2006 is going to be a big one in Michigan.
[Update: -6:45 pm 10/31/2005- News today that MCRI is one step closer to the ballot, no news if there will be further challenges. Here's a link.]
Sunday, October 30, 2005
Bouchard back in the race
Thursday, October 27, 2005
Racism? What Racism?
As a note, I'm usually the last person to call something racist, but this is really just a no-brainer. The only other reason they possibly couldn't like Butler is because he's rich, wait a sec, shouldn't that make the GOP love him?
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
Michigan's economic problems:
Manufacturing losses in Michigan:
That's bad news for DeVos. Especially on the manufacturing losses. He is going to have to make one hell of a pitch to convince people to change their minds. I think Granholm will be a better campaigner than to let that happen. The poll also gave some early numbers on the race:
Granholm opinion: 55/35/9
Granholm job rating: 46/52/2
Granholm v. DeVos (last month):
Granholm: 53% (50)
DeVos: 30% (30)
Undecided: 17% (20)
A third would reelect Granholm, a third would consider someone new and only 18% would vote against her while 16% can't make up their minds.
DeVos has 69% name recognition with 20/16/33 approval, it looks like early on, people are willing to give him a chance.
A Bevy of Polls
Check out this right/wrong direction poll from SUSA
SUSA 50 state Senatorial Approval Poll:
In the Detroit Mayoral race, U-D Mercy released their (first I think) poll on the race. They show Hendrix up on Kilpatrick 60%-40%, I dunno how accurate that is though, it seems to me like the race is a bit closer than that.
Back to the state at large, Strategic Vision, a Republican outfit, has released a slew of numbers.
Below are the results of a three-day poll of registered voters in the state of Michigan. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and conducted October 21-23, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The format for these is approve/disapprove/undecided
Granholm's job performance: 44/49/7
Stabenow's job performance: 42/38/20
Levin job performance: 53/36/11
Bush job performance: 34/56/10
Bush on the economy: 29/60/11
Bush on Iraq: 36/54/10
Right Track/Wrong Track
Bush's nomination of Harriet Miers: 46/36/18
Supreme Court overturn the Roe v. Wade:
Jennifer Granholm 46%
Dick DeVos 35%
Republican Primary? (Republicans Only)
Keith Butler 28%
Jerry Zandstra 21%
Satisfied with current Republican Senate candidates: (Republicans only)
Prefer another candidate 58%
Debbie Stabenow 47%
Keith Butler 28%
Debbie Stabenow 49%
Jerry Zandstra 22%
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
A New Way
For your convenience.
Monday, October 24, 2005
A New Strategy
Here's her plan. She won't run against DeVos, she'll run against Bush. I think it's kinda dirty, seeing as how Bush really has little interest in defending himself, but hey, DeVos can fight back. To defeat this plan, all DeVos has to do is side with Granholm on this and criticize Bush for destroying the Michigan economy... Yeah, I laughed to. This is looking to be a fun race.
Sunday, October 23, 2005
Bouchard at 90%
House Speaker Craig DeRoche: Three thumbs up, he's all for it.
Sec of State Terri Lynn Land: Even though I like primaries, I like Mikey even more.
Nat'l Committeeman Chuck Yob (older one): "He will pick up big money"
RSCC Chair Lizzy Dole: Go for it
MiGOP Chair Saul Anuzis: No problems mate!
So it looks to be a rough week for Butler, and Zandstra. I think that the establishment will totally switch to Bouchard, partially switch, or at the very least drop their endorsement of Butler. The last option would open up a window for Zandstra to get some monies. Who can say, this will be interesting. I think the GOP is making a mistake here. They're going to need all the money they can get, and I have a feeling that this primary is going to get ugly.
How the Congressional Races Fare
Kimon Kotos in the 2nd district, Mike Huckleberry in the 4th district, Bob Alexander in the 8th district and Steve Reifman in the 9th district all lost to incumbents last year. I hate to point it out, but not one of them broke 40% in the last election. But these guys are gluttons for punishment. With the exception of Bob Alexander, the mc3 will be running again next year.
Mad props to Kimon Kotos, who not only has to coolest name, but will run again aginst Hoekstra, not something that anybody can really relish doing. And the same to Mike Hickleberry, who will run against David Camp, not quite as bad, but still no walk in the park.
In the 8th district, no democratic candidate has emerged to challenge Mike Rogers except Eric Crosley, who has been in and out of the picture, and hasn't returned my e-mails.
On to the 9th, where there is an over abundance of candidates. Announced already are Rhonda Ross and, of course, Steve Reifman. They might have to share the primary with John Ashcraft and John Murray, who knows.
Off to the 11th, where lurks Thaddeus McCotter, the sophomore gooper. He is facing either radio host Tony Trupiano or Ray Raczkowski who will face off in a primary.
Virg Bernero was endorsed by the Lansing State Journal today en route to a rout of sitting Mayor Tony Benavides. I think this race is going to get dirtier before the end, but I don't think it will make much of a difference. While Virg clearly didn't enjoy being a legislator, and probably wasn't very good at it as a result, I think he'll do a good job as mayor. He's energetic and passionate, two qualities that make good administrators and bad legislators.
Friday, October 21, 2005
The Race Heats Up
Then there's this gem from Michigan Liberal. It seems Kwame hasn't been paying his bills. He's been closing in on Hendrix since the challenger's son was arrested but if this hits news stands, it's not going to reflect well. As far as this being something huge, it's not, but this race is going to be close, and every slip will matter.
The Senate $$$
|Name||On Hand||Raised||Spent||Net Gain|
Butler is going to have to start raising some more cash if he expects to buy Zandstra out of the race. Butler has a ton of baggage, and I think he's gonna need more than 6:1 to beat Zandstra. Aside from Stabenow, who raised a ton of cash, these numbers are unimpressive and not very telling at all.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
That Time of the Month Again
Think back to the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Granholm didn't break %50. She ran against Blanchard and Bonior. Check out this article about how the race was looking after the 2000 election. Granholm beats Bonior %42-%29 two years out. That's much to close for her liking, primaries are supposed to be easy things. From what I remember, there was quite a bit of surprise when Blanchard entered the race. All he did was cannibalize support from Bonior, he never had a chance of winning.
Was anybody surprised when Granholm selected Rick Wiener (Blanchard's Chief of Staff) to hold the same position in her own administration? When you divide and conquer, the players are on your side, and sometimes you have to pay them to be there. If the sheriff does indeed enter the race, I think he'll draw the most votes from Butler, but not nearly enough to win outright. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some in the party that aren't very happy with Butler and are pushing to "diversify" the field.
In Case You Haven't Noticed,
An Interesting Editorial
That seems pretty reasonable right? I mean, we have a legislature that is amazingly responsive to the people, at least the people who donate thousands to underwrite their campaigns. You don't need to look much farther than the Telecom Bill that the senate just passed to realize who is running the show in Lansing. So why is it that we are represented by so much scum, these despicable people willing to sell out millions of people for a couple thousand dollars?
They've got nothing to lose, they still get elected, no problem.
I've got a scenerio for you, suppose this proposal was put foreward and it did pass. What would happen? (By the way, this was the kind of question you should have asked yourself before you wrote your editorial). Well, a board would re-draw district lines. But what proposals would the Republicans and the Democrats put foreward? Gerrymandering doesn't really work anymore does it? It's not how many seats you win, it's how many people you get to vote for you that matters in terms of the final overall makeup of a body. So how do you get people to vote in an election? I'll tell you what I'd do, I'd make 'em all real tight. Every district in the state would be 50/50. That way, like you said, the superior candidate would win, partisanship aside. Each base would turn out to support their candidate and independants would come out in force to vote for the stronger of the two. Applied historically, the overall makeup of the house would be around 50/50.
There is no clear winner in this proposal except democracy. More people would vote because more people's vote would count.
The assertion that this is just a power play by the dems to kick the GOP out of power is somewhat absurd, the dems are already poised to take back the Senate and probably the House in the next election cycle. This should not be confused with term-limiting.
I could clearly go on about this but I'll spare you.
Sunday, October 16, 2005
Detroiters reconsidering Hendrix
Saturday, October 15, 2005
That would rock.
How the Congressmen Fared
|Name||On Hand ||Raised||Spent||Net Gain |
|Conyers|| $183,976 ||$0 ||$2,944 ||-$2,944 |
Thanks to the FEC...
The Senate will be up soon.
[Update with Conyers' numbers... they seem a bit odd]
Friday, October 14, 2005
What's Delphi Anyway?
First, we could pay Delphi to operate and continue to pay its workers. Sound a bit Soviet? Isn't going to happen and probably for the best.
Second, we could bust the unions and keep Delphi. The would mean letting them pay their workers minimum wage with no benefits. Hell, that's the only way they can turn a profit. I don't like this option. This is just de facto option 1, I call it the Wal-Mark option. Instead of subsidizing the company, the state just takes care of their workers, a job the company should be doing. I don't like it. Not one bit. (Plus I'm a big fan of unions, and busting unions makes me angry.)
Third, we could teach these workers how to do something else. There is a lot of money floating around out there just looking for somebody who knows how to use it. U of M just built three or four giant new buildings and is working to hire people to fill them. I can only assume that this is the case all over the state, at least that's what Granholm is saying.
I like education. I'm a civil engineering student, it's not that hard, but for some reason there is only one person over 30 in any of my classes. Why isn't the state paying for older people (ie adults) to go to college? I just don't get it.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
Is there a bigger non-story, story out there?
Summary: Shelby Township trustee drives into a ditch. Said she had drinks earlier in the night. Her BAC is below the legal limit. She is given no ticket.
Slow newsday? Personal vendetta?
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Anyone heard of ethics?
Channel 7 does not quote the victim, or her family. This makes me sick. Anyone want to voice their concerns with the ethics of the story can contact them via their website. Their general manager is Grace Gilchrist.
I Love the Michigan Daily
The Headline (frontpage, no less):
"Candidate’s son pleads guilty to drunk driving"
The Actual Story (the truth and in the daily):
"A not-guilty plea was entered for Stephen Hendrix in the drunken driving case." p. 7
I suppose at least they try.
In other news, you've probably seen this elsewhere, but go vote for Michigan in the ActBlue poll, vote for Michigan. This is the year that dems can take the state senate, but they need the cash to do it.