Friday, April 22, 2005

 

House Outlook cont'd

There are 14 incumbents in the current house that may be unseated. The first is John Pastor, a second term representative from northern wayne county. He won in a landslide his first term but had a scare this last election when Joan Gebhardt barely missed him. He even spent three times as much as she did. If the democrats know what's good for them, they'll snatch up this seat.

The second vulnerable seat is Dem Marie Donigan's 26th district seat in Oakland County. She holds Dave Woodward's old district and while he was able to win easily in 2002, she had a much rougher go at it when she ran last year. She out spend here opponent 3 to 1 and only ended up winning due to a couple strong third party candidates. It's unclear whether her opponent from 2004 Carlo Ginotti will run again, but this will be a close race either way.

In the 30th district, Tory Rocca took over for his popular father Sal in 2004. This dynasty family dynasty holds major sway over alcohol in the state and Tory's money showes. He outspent his opponent but only won with 54% of the vote. His name and money won him the election, if the democrats can find somebody to match him, they'll pick up this seat.

David Law represents the 39th district in Oakland county. He easily outspent his opponent Michael Schwartz. The district was held previously by Marc Shulman and he was quite popular but Law only managed to take 52% in the election. This one would be costly for the democrats but a little leadership and money from the state could haul this one in.

Mike Nofs is now serving his second term in the 62nd district that makes up most of calhoun county. He spent a lot of money to win it the first time and took 53% of the vote and spend even more to win it the second time, outspending his opponent Lynne Haley 4 to 1. Even so, he only took 53 % of the vote. It sees like soon his fundraising will catch up to him and he will be taken down.

The final 6 later. So far, lets make it Dems pick up 3 Reps pick up 1, and 4 up in the air.

Comments:
Well. It very well could have been that Donigan won IN SPITE of the independent and third party candidates, rather than BECAUSE of them.

FWIW, I think Donigan and Woodward are great and I consider them friends. I am an Executive Board Member of the Oakland County Democratic Party, the organization of which Woodward is currently Chair.
 
I don't know a lot about Oakland county, it seems like Republicans there are on the way out, which would be a huge boost for the entire state. I you'd like to write about Oakland county matters, that would be a huge boost to the quality of this site.
 
House 26 - I was surprised that race was as close as it was since it tilts dem with Madison Heights there as well as Royal Oak. A Constitution Party/US Taxpayer's candidate hurt the GOP there bad too, although it wasn't enough to matter. Kerry got 54.67% there.

D25 - In the Sterling Heights seat, Rocca ran about even with Bush there. I think he'll be tougher to beat as an incumbent when he has his own record instead of being Sal's son.

D19 - Pastor's numbers were almost 2% lower than Bush's in Livonia. I'm not sure why there, and don't know much about Gebhardt or Pastor.

D62 - Nofs is just in a tough district that has both Battle Creek and Albion(very democrat) in it. Bush and Posthumus both lost this district(which leaves out the most GOP part of Calhoun County), and Nofs ran 5% ahead of Bush here. This should be a tough district for both parties until it's redistricted.
 
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