Friday, April 22, 2005


House of Reps outlook

There will be only 19 reps forced out in 2006 due to term limits, 13 Democrats and 6 Republicans. While on the surface, that might seem like an advantage for the GOP, a closer look at the numbers shows that GOP might be in for more losses in 2006 after losing a net 5 seats (lost 5, picked up 1) in 2004. First a recap of 2004. The democrats picked up districts 15, 52, 55, 56,83, 107 and lost 97. Two of those districts, 55 and 56 were won by the will of John Dingell who really pulled for Angerer and Kehrl and managed to pull off a couple of squeakers. 2006 Seems like it will be equally interesting in the house. There will be around 16 close races, unless Dingell stays involved, in which case there will only be 14. We can assume that's the case because Dingell is a real good fellow. Of the fourteen remaining, only three are due to term limits 67th, 75th and the 84th. The 67th is Dianne Byrum's district. She is very popular, almost beating Mike Rogers for the 8th Congressional District but she lives in a conservative district. The GOP should pick up her seat. In the 75th (Grand Rapids), the Dems have been closing in on Jerry Kooiman and will probably pick up his seat when he is forced out. In the 84th however, money goes a long way. Tom Kern almost defeated incumbent Tom Meyer by spending twice as much as him in 2002. If the Dems pump some money into this race, they can pick up a seat in a conservative. More on the occupied seats later.

Interesting site. I found this from PolState Report

Byrum is from a 50/50 district. I was treasurer for a campaign there (who withdrew) before Byrum jumped in after her st. senate seat was termed out.

Bush won the seat with 50%. The rural townships there lean conservative. Mason and Delhi Twp(Holt) Swings, and the democrat base here is the Southern Part of the City of Lansing(mostly south of Jolly Road).

District 84 goes a lot further than money. The thumb is very conservative, but also very independent. They vote person over party, and that showed in the Tom Kern race. Kern was the Tuscola County sheriff and was also very outspokenly pro-2a so he had much of the law and order and gun vote.

As for Kooiman, Grand Rapids City is becoming much more liberal, and that will be a very tough defense for the GOP.
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